As in, will Boehner continue to hold the line on tying some sort of
repeal/delay of Obamacare to a measure to fund the government and, if
so, how long can he (or will he) keep that position in the face of a
shuttered federal government?Boehner has already given some clues — two in fact.
1. He shelved a plan forwarded by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (Va.) that would have allowed the Senate to remove the defunding of Obamacare from the continuing resolution to fund the government.
2. After the Senate, as expected, took the defunding Obamacare language out of the legislation and sent it back to the House, Boehner chose to forward a measure that would delay Obamacare for a year (and repeal a medical device tax).
On both occasions, Boehner sided with cast-iron conservatives — offering very little wiggle room to Senate Democrats (or the White House) who have pledged publicly not to vote for any resolution funding the government beyond today that also includes provisions tied to Obamacare.
What we don’t know is whether Boehner is simply trying to establish the strongest possible negotiating position for his party if (and really at this point when) a shutdown happens or whether he is simply digging in for the long haul — with no real thought about positioning himself (and his conference) for a compromise.
Boehner’s conundrum is this: He knows that most polling shows Republicans will take the blame for a shutdown. But, he also knows that if he gives in and/or is perceived by cast-iron conservatives as giving in, his speakership is all but over. (You could argue Boehner’s speakership has been on the ropes for some time now. But passing a continuing resolution to keep the government running with a slew of Democratic votes would amount to a death blow.)
If he cuts a deal — literally, any deal — Boehner is effectively signing his own political death certificate (or damn close). If he doesn’t cut a deal, he runs the very real risk of watching a political climate that should be conducive to Republican gains in 2014 shift against the GOP, as it becomes the symbol of the blockade in Washington that many voters are sick of.
Boehner, a savvy pol, knows all of this. But what we don’t know (and, in truth, he might not know either) is how far is enough and how far is too much. As in, if the government shuts down for three days but Boehner is regarded as winning (or coming close to it) in the negotiation that ends the shutdown, is that success? Or is success — in the eyes of cast-iron conservatives who may hold his speakership in their hands — defined solely by full capitulation by the White House and Senate Democrats to their demands on Obamacare?
Boehner has to find that sweet spot — if one exists — in the coming days. Tilt too far one way and his speakership is history. Tilt too far the other way and the Republican majority in the House could be history.