Ted Cruz, wanted to make a point about the way he was
being covered.
He loved being mocked by Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, the senator
said, and not just because he thought the sound bites were funny. It
was because they played clips showing him attacking ObamaCare, and
therefore got his message out to people who don’t watch “Meet the Press”
or Fox News, which he was also on yesterday.
Cruz, who has done more than anyone else in Washington to take us to
the brink in this budget impasse, says he doesn’t want to close down the
federal government. Nearly everyone, Republican or Democrat, says the
same thing. Yet we seem to be hurtling there at high speed.
So who might be rooting for a government shutdown?
The question sounds counterintuitive. Everybody is busy proclaiming
that of course they want to avoid the train wreck that closing the
federal government would become.
But the smart money in Washington, which is not always so smart, says
that federal workers, except for those high-status “essential”
personnel, will be sent home tomorrow. Since the brinkmanship could be
settled in five minutes if both parties would compromise, it must be in
someone’s interest to close the doors for the first time in 17 years.
Let’s review:
- The media: Though journalists have covered one fiscal cliff
too many, the sharp rhetoric, faux filibuster and countdown clocks make
for a good story. If the White House and Congress strike a last-minute
deal, the story is over -- well, until the debt ceiling showdown in two
weeks.
If there’s no deal, the media will be awash in pieces about shuttered
national parks, anxious seniors, angry tourists, furloughed workers,
and frantic negotiations to re-open the doors.
I’m not saying the Fourth Estate is pining for a shutdown, just pointing out that ratings go up during disasters.
- President Obama: It’s not exactly the worst outcome for the
Democrats if the government shuts down, especially if it’s only for a
few days. Having hammered the Republicans as blackmailers for recklessly
risking a shutdown, Obama would have a dramatic example to drive home
the point. See? They actually pulled the trigger.
As the pain mounted, the Republicans would inevitably have to agree
to a compromise that doesn’t defund ObamaCare, allowing the president to
declare victory. Of course, both sides will look bad. But polls show
that more people will blame a shutdown on the GOP.
- John Boehner Republicans: The House speaker very much wanted
to cut a deal to avoid the shutdown drama, but was undercut by his Tea
Party wing. Now he’s in a box, needing to maintain control of his caucus
while knowing his party will bear the brunt of the political fallout.
But if the government is forced to close, it’s the conservative
crusaders who will feel the heat to relent, without Boehner having to
lift a finger. Once they start hearing from constituents back home, it
may be easier for Boehner to cobble together a compromise.
- Ted Cruz Republicans: By forcing a shutdown, the Cruz
contingent can show its strongest supporters that it was dead serious
about stopping ObamaCare. The shutdown can serve as a safety valve of
sorts, allowing the hard-liners to let off steam.
Once the inevitable compromise is made to turn the lights back on,
Cruz and his compatriots can feel that they made their point. And if the
Democrats have to throw them a couple of minor concessions to grease
the deal, they can declare victory as well.
Here is a footnote. More than half of those questioned in a new survey say
the media’s coverage of the ObamaCare shutdown has been focused on
politics and controversies. The figure reaches 56 percent in the Kaiser
Family Foundation poll, while only 6 percent say the coverage has been
mainly about the law’s impact on people.
An unnerving nugget is that 53 percent of those questioned said there
was not one media source they trusted on ObamaCare. Among the rest, 19
percent said they most trusted cable news. The breakdown there was 10
percent trust Fox News, 5 percent trust CNN and 2 percent trust MSNBC.